The Reflection of Border Conflicts between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2020-2023 Social Media discourse

Abstract

The study of conflicts occurring in the Fergana Valley of Central Asia has attracted numerous regional and non-regional researchers. In their search for the causes of recurring border instability, authors have turned to the analysis of historical, political, economic, cultural, symbolic, geographic, and religious factors. However, despite the diligent analysis of external forces, insufficient attention has been paid to the factors that motivate local residents to initiate, participate in, or support ongoing conflicts. To address this issue, this master's thesis proposes an in-depth study of online discourse using posts and comments on social media in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan from 2020 to 2023. The social identity theory proposed in the study not only establishes the nature of the development of group contradictions but also explains their potential reflection in online content. The study expands the existing scientific base on interethnic contradictions in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan through frequency, sentiment, and regression tests, as well as elements of machine learning. Furthermore, the study contributes to the application of computer-aided text analysis (CATA) to the study of international conflicts.