Explaining Variations in Voter Turnout Rates in Afghan Presidential Elections

Abstract

This study is the overall examination of the issue of voter turnout across presidential elections in Afghanistan. It investigates the problems of voter turnout patterns and as to why these patterns have emerged. Specifically, it looks into the decline of turnout during the 2009 and 2019 presidential elections. It argues that in Afghanistan, a post-conflict state, most of the institutional explanations of voter turnout express neither the increase in the turnout levels nor the decrease in the turnout levels. Hence, there is a need to study other significant factors that have affected turnout during the Afghan presidential elections. So, in Afghanistan, each of the four presidential elections have had their unique factors affecting turnout and election specific factors. Therefore, this study hypothesized a correlation between the decline in voter turnout and the change in the socio-political, economic, and security situation on the ground before elections. It also hypothesized that the incumbent president and the government's inability to bring positive changes into people's lives dissuade a larger majority of people from voting. Similarly, the thesis looked into public dissatisfaction with the incumbent government and found out that turnout is being affected by general dissatisfaction to a more considerable extent. This dissatisfaction is both with the process of democratization and institutions along with the incumbent government and president.