Authoritarian Transitions: The Role of Qandy Qantar in Redefining the Kazakh Duumvirate

Abstract

This thesis examines leadership succession in authoritarian regimes, focusing on Kazakhstan as a single case study. It specifically examines the transition of power from Nursultan Nazarbayev to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and explores how the January 2022 protests influenced this process. The research situates the Kazakh transition within broader discussions of authoritarian resilience and political succession, highlighting the role of power struggles, public protests, and systemic challenges in shaping the political landscape. Taking the framework of regime cycles and constructivist approach as an umbrella of the research, the study argues that the protests acted as both a destabilizing force and an opportunity for Tokayev to consolidate power, diminish Nazarbayev's influence, and establish a "new political order" in Kazakhstan. However, at the same time, the thesis departs from the position that the literature on authoritarian succession and existing frameworks do not comprehensively take into account the complex local dynamics. Therefore, investigating leadership succession by combining different methods and expanding the theoretical lens contributes to the knowledge of modern autocracies. Consequently, the empirical analysis develops around these aspects. The goal of this study is not only to descriptively tell the story of the Kazakh succession but also to search for the answers to how the dual power situation was resolved. To achieve a solid analysis a broad range of data was analyzed, through multiple frameworks, such as elite dynamics, institutional analysis, framing analysis and, to a limited extent, a look at bottom-up processes. The thesis concludes by arguing that the “Bloody January” protests - Qandy Qantar - served as a political opportunity, shaping the succession process, where the prolonged duumvirate system finally came to an end.