The Middle Corridor’s Impact on Kazakhstan: Foreign Policy, Economic Development, and Regional Co-operation

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 altered economic integration in Eurasia. Sanctions imposed on Russia led to the West's blockage of the Northern Corridor and the elevation of the role of the Middle Corridor that passes through Central Asia. In particular, Kazakhstan is actively promoting the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). This route goes through Southeast Asia, China, Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, and advances to Europe.1 Considering the impact of the Russian war in Ukraine on the connectivity of Eurasia, this research analyzed the effect of the increasing global interest in the Middle Corridor on Kazakhstan’s foreign policy, economic development, and the country’s participation in regional cooperation. The research is based on the analysis of data retrieved from the databases of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies and the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan on investments and trade turnover, as well as on the information gathered in interviews with experts from the European Union delegation to the Republic of Kazakhstan, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Neighbourhood Council, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, and Nazarbayev University. This research argues that the growing interest in the Middle Corridor impacted the economic course of Kazakhstan, which in turn shaped the multi-vector foreign policy of the country. Despite the developed infrastructure of the Northern Corridor, the Middle Corridor is becoming a critical juncture of the connectivity between China and the European Union with the route bypassing Russia. The paper emphasizes the political significance of the Middle Corridor for Kazakhstan’s position in Eurasia, its importance for economic development, and regional cooperation of Central Asian and South Caucasus states.