The Role of Hydropower in Water-Energy Dynamics of Aral Sea Basin: A Study of Rogun and Kambarata-1 Projects

Abstract

This thesis explores the complex interrelationship between water and energy resources in the Aral Sea basin, where the use of water for hydropower in upstream countries such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are confronted with the irrigation needs of agricultural land in downstream countries, including Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. This work is aimed at analyzing two large hydropower projects like Rogun HPP in Tajikistan and Kambarata-1 in Kyrgyzstan using the concept of water-energy nexus, as well as zero-sum and non-zero-sum theories. The analysis focuses on identifying the technical, economic, geopolitical and environmental impacts of these projects as well as their impact on regional cooperation. The study shows that the Rogun HPP which has significant potential for exporting electricity through the CASA-1000 project, strengthens Tajikistan's economic and geopolitical positions, but at the same time poses threats to downstream countries due to the possible reduction of water resources for irrigation. Kambarata-1 on the contrary, is more focused on ensuring Kyrgyzstan's energy independence and offers an opportunity for more balanced water resources management by regulating the flow of the Naryn River. The application of zero-sum and non-zero-sum theories has allowed to understand deeper the dynamics of interactions between the countries of the region. The time of Islam Karimov's rule was characterized by zero-sum dominance, which intensified conflicts between countries in the region. Since Shavkat Mirziyoyev came to power, the approach to cooperation has become more constructive opening up opportunities for a non-zero- sum, where overall success becomes real with coordinated resource management. The study highlights the need to develop new policy mechanisms and institutional frameworks to ensure sustainable management of the region's water and energy resources. The results of the work have both academic and practical value, offering solutions to strengthen regional cooperation, protect ecosystems and ensure sustainable development. The thesis serves as a basis for further research in the field of water-energy nexus in Aral Sea Basin, offering a new perspective on resolving long-standing conflicts over resources and emphasizing the importance of balancing the interests of upstream and downstream countries.