The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Output in Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

The agricultural sector plays a significant role in the economy of Kyrgyzstan. More than half of the rural population is employed in the agricultural sector and highly reliant on it. However, in addition to existing challenges, current climate change poses further risks to the agricultural sector. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural output in Kyrgyzstan. The study uses two years of household-level panel and weather data. The study analysis is focused on agricultural outputs, categorized into four groups: fruits, vegetables, grains, and others, and ten individual crops. The analysis applies Random and Fixed Effect estimation methods. The findings of this research show that climate shocks and weather variables can both positively and negatively affect crop yields depending on the crop type. Non-climatic factors, such as the use of compost and fertilizers, significantly improve yields, while household characteristic variables such as financial literacy, play a crucial and positive role. To enhance agricultural resilience, the study recommends cultivating climate-resilient crops, improving irrigation infrastructure and management, promoting the use of compost and eco-friendly fertilizers, and strengthening farmers’ financial literacy. The main limitation of the study is that it excludes livestock production and does not account for long-term temperature changes due to data availability.