The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Commercial Banks’ Profitability: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan (2018-2021)

Abstract

This research investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the commercial banks’ profitability in the Kyrgyz Republic over the period of 2018-2021 using the “random and fixed effects” estimation method with multiple linear regression analysis to co-integration while controlling for bank-specific factors of bank profitability. The research paper is based on the mixed method, which consists of a quantitative part and specific case studies. Bank profitability is proxied by Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Net Interest Margin (NIM). Therefore, this research is based on three regression models. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic was added as an interaction term for each independent variable. The research finds that the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant negative effect on commercial banks’ profitability measured by the ROA ratio only in the short run till the end of 2020. The ROA ratios have been getting better since the beginning of 2021. Generally, most explanatory variables used in the study have a negative effect on bank profitability during the COVID-19 pandemic, although the impact is not the same across the different measures of commercial banks’ profitability. The ROA ratio's regression model has a strong functional form and significant bank-specific independent variables. The ROA's model confirms the hypothesis of the research paper. On the other side, the regression models of the ROE and NIM show imperfect functional forms and a lack of correlations between variables. These models do not confirm the hypothesis of the research paper. In addition, state-owned banks have lower profitability rather than private banks, but with more stability in the profitability ratios. Foreign banks less faced the effect of each external shock and financial crisis, because these banks’ ROA, ROE, and NIM ratios are more stable during the analyzed period.