Iran’s Aspirations and Prospects in the Emerging Chinese-Indian Nexus in Central Asia and the Caucasus

Abstract

The war waged in late 2020 between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh was an abrupt reminder of Iran’s vastly diminished role and influence in its northern frontier. Coming at the back of increased Chinese and Indian presence in Central Asia and the Caucasus, and aware of Tehran’s critical role in Beijing and New Delhi’s strategic visions for increased connectivity with Europe via these regions, this paper makes the case that Iranian officials’ strategy for revitalisation of Tehran’s influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus largely rests on attracting Chinese and Indian investments into their own strategically located Free Trade and Special Economic Zones. Notwithstanding Iran’s vision of becoming a bridge between the landlocked nations of Central Asia and the vibrant markets of East and South Asia, however, Tehran’s efforts have been frustrated by its reactionary and ideological foreign policy-making, both of which have turned it into a risky partner for China and India whose long-term agreements have created more (inter)national news headlines and less economic opportunities for the Islamic Republic.