The Influence of Income on Migration Intentions in Afghanistan (2016-2019)

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to find out how income and other socio-economic and demographic factors affect migration intentions of the Afghan people. The data for the study comes from the survey of the Afghan people, which is conducted by the Asia Foundation Afghanistan. In this paper the data is used both as a cross sectional for 2019 in order to find the impact of income on migration intention in 2019, and panel datasets for 2016 to 2019, for the purpose of addressing reverse causality. Since, the dependent variable is a binary variable which consists of 0 and 1 values, and the Probit regression is used for estimation of the model. As well as, a random effect logit estimation method is used as a panel model. Form the outcomes of the research we can conclude that, increasing in income levels of the households and also increase in land ownership which is the asset of the household has significantly indirect impact on decisions of people for leaving the country. On the other hand, the results of the panel model suggest that, income levels do not have significant impact on migration intentions of people. As well as, other economic factors such as income of a female member, land ownership, and employment did not have significant impact on migration intention of Afghans.