China’s Policy of Political and Lending Conditionality: the Case of Chinese “Debt-trap Diplomacy” in Central Asia

Abstract

In 2018, a report came out stating that eight countries were at risk of falling into China’s debt-trap. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were among the eight countries that were reportedly in risk of falling into a debt-trap. As a largest investor in Central Asia, China’s involvement marked a turning point in economic development and infrastructure building throughout its Post-Soviet history. The BRI’s creation of trade routes passing through Central Asia, and infrastructure building offers many opportunities, however this development has shown a worrying sign of smaller states becoming path dependent on China. Taking ownership of natural resources, especially in Tajikistan is a signal that China is conditioning the smaller neighbors that desperately needs infrastructure money, to give access to natural resources. Consequently, the questions arise that might help us clarify the exact situation and dispel the speculations. This thesis examines to what extent the growing indebtedness of Central Asian states, and Tajikistan particular, through the Belt and Road Initiative’s financing, is a sign of debt-trap diplomacy?