Quantifying an Ominous Nexus: The Correlation Between Terrorism and Illicit Drugs in Afghanistan

Abstract

Many observers identify the war in Afghanistan as one of the main drivers of opium poppy cultivation in the country; however, this assumed nexus has not yet been subjected to statistical analysis. The available literature fails to provide a numerical explanation that might substantiate this assumed linkage between the war and an increase in cultivation, production, and trafficking of illicit drugs in Afghanistan. Consequently, the following research questions have not been addressed in this body of literature: Is there a statistical correlation between the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) fatalities and opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan? How and to what extent have changes in the number of ANDSF fatalities had an impact on opium poppy cultivation? Seeking to address these questions, this thesis utilizes Bivariate Linear Regression and Correlational Model Analysis to provide a graphical and numerical explanation of the association between ANDSF fatalities and opium poppy cultivation from 2003 until 2017. Using paired data of the total number of the ANDSF fatalities and the total area under opium poppy cultivation for 15 observational cases (years from 2003 until 2017) the study rejected the null hypothesis, H0 (There is no statistical relationship between the ANDSF fatalities and opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan). Considering the findings, the thesis concludes that there is a positive, fairly strong, and significant correlation between the ANDSF fatalities and opium poppy cultivation. Furthermore, in the case of a one-unit increase in the number of ANDSF fatalities, it is likely to increase the opium poppy cultivation by more than 16 hectares.