‘Why Did the North Stay Out?’: Re-Examining Tajikistan’s 1992-1997 Civil War

Abstract

This Thesis examines the question as to why northern Tajikistan, which is one of strategically important regions of the country, did not participate in the 1992-1997 civil war. Through analysis of theories of “grievance-based,” “elite-based,” and the “opportunity”-based component of greed-based theory of civil war as explanations of the outbreak of internal conflicts, this Thesis answers why northern Tajikistan managed to avoid the civil war. Using data collected from the analysis of archival documents in Khujand archive and conducted interviews (N=12), the Thesis adopts comparative analysis of two regions of Tajikistan, i.e. North and South. The main argument of Thesis is that the North did not participate in the civil war because of the lack of factors that pushed the South into war. Those factors are grievance caused by political and economic inequality, religiosity and conservativeness that were used by religious elites, and the geography.