A comparative analysis of federalism applicability in Afghanistan

Abstract

Afghanistan has experienced a centralized system of governance since its modern foundation under Amir Abdul Rahman Khan in 1880. This centralized structure has contributed to political instability, civil war, and ongoing conflict. A particular group, primarily from a dominant ethnic background, has monopolized political power, marginalizing not only other ethnic communities but also its own members residing in the provinces. Except for a small elite based in the capital, most citizens, regardless of ethnicity, feel excluded from political participation. A recent example of this dynamic can be observed during the era of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. Although the Pashtun ethnic group held significant influence in the capital, other ethnic groups, as well as Pashtuns in the western and eastern regions, felt politically isolated and, in some cases, began to resist the central government. In response to such challenges, scholars have proposed divergent solutions: some advocate for stronger centralization and national cultural homogenization. In contrast, others argue for decentralization and granting autonomy to regional and ethnic groups. However, these proposals often lack a rigorous academic framework and tend to offer conclusions without thorough empirical analysis. This study tries to understand how diverse societies manage ethnic diversity and political power. It provides a comparative analysis between countries that have successfully managed diversity and achieved political stability, such as Switzerland, and those that have failed to do so and resulted in conflict, like Yugoslavia, to identify the underlying factors that lead countries with similar levels of diversity to follow vastly different political trajectories. After identifying the reasons behind the success of federalism, the study will examine the context of Afghanistan to determine which characteristics of federalism are present and which are absent. Specifically, it examines whether a decentralized model, such as federalism, could be a viable governance structure for Afghanistan, given its complex cultural and ethnic composition. This study adopts a qualitative research methodology that combines comparative case study analysis with an extensive review of academic literature, policy reports, and constitutional documents to examine why similar systems lead to different outcomes.