Extreme weather events and the multidimensional energy poverty

Abstract

Households in Kyrgyzstan face persistent challenges in accessing affordable, reliable, and clean energy, a situation that is increasingly exacerbated by extreme weather events and structural weaknesses in the national energy system. Despite the country’s heavy reliance on hydropower, electricity supply remains vulnerable to seasonal water shortages, aging infrastructure, and climatic shocks, particularly during cold winter months when heating demand peaks. Existing research on energy poverty in Kyrgyzstan and comparable contexts has largely relied on single-dimensional measures, such as energy expenditure thresholds, which fail to capture the broader and more complex nature of household energy deprivation. This study addresses this gap by adopting a multidimensional perspective and empirically examining the relationship between extreme weather exposure and multidimensional energy poverty in Kyrgyzstan. Using nationally representative data from the Life in Kyrgyzstan Household Survey, the study constructs a Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI) based on the Alkire–Foster methodology, incorporating indicators related to energy access, affordability, reliability, and health and safety implications of fuel use. Extreme weather exposure is proxied through household-reported heating duration, regional cold climate characteristics, electricity outages, and self-reported weather shocks. The empirical strategy combines descriptive analysis with econometric techniques, including ordinary least squares estimation of energy poverty intensity and binary response models (logit and probit) to estimate the probability of being multidimensionally energy poor. Robustness checks and interaction models are employed to assess heterogeneity across income levels and regions. By linking climate vulnerability to multidimensional energy deprivation, this study contributes to the literature on energy poverty and climate resilience and provides policy-relevant insights for designing targeted interventions that address both energy access and climate adaptation challenges in Kyrgyzstan.