From War to “Peace”: Post-2020 Transformation of State Discourse on Karabakh in Armenia and Azerbaijan

Abstract

This thesis examines the transformations of state discourses on Karabakh in Armenia and Azerbaijan since the 2020 war and asks what explains the divergence of these discursive trajectories. It places post-2020 changes within the broader context of studies of national narratives, power legitimation, and post-conflict politics, examining official rhetoric as a space where the boundaries of the permissible are articulated, the symbolic foundations of the national project are redefined, and “new realities” are consolidated. The period 2018-2020 is used as a starting point, allowing for the recording of pre-war discursive patterns and their comparison with subsequent dynamics. Methodologically, the thesis is based primarily on desk-based qualitative analysis and combines elements of critical discourse analysis and hegemonic theory. The empirical base includes a purposively selected corpus of public speeches and statements by key political leaders, as well as secondary sources used for contextualization. The central argument of the thesis is that the 2020 war acted as an internal “switch” for legitimization, generating asymmetric political incentives: in Armenia, defeat increased pressure on the government and facilitated the reassembly of the previous Karabakh-centric framework toward a more pragmatic, procedural peace discourse; in Azerbaijan, victory created the conditions for consolidating the hegemony of the victory narrative, institutionalizing “new realities,” and consolidating the political order through mobilization rhetoric. However, the thesis does not reduce discourse shifts to a single factor and recognizes that they are occurring against a backdrop of external constraints and crises-escalations, the blockade, the events of 2023, and the negotiation process. In conclusion, it is shown that after 2020, the rhetorical rapprochement around “peace” does not mean a coincidence of its content: in Armenia, “peace” is framed as a project of internal restructuring and managed procedures, while in Azerbaijan it is framed as an external recording of the results of the war and a continuation of the victorious narrative in an institutional form.