The War in Ukraine as a Turning Point in the Global Balance of Power with the Focus on the Russian Federation and the United States

Abstract

This research aims to explore the war in Ukraine as a significant shift in the global balance of power, with a focus on the United States and the Russian Federation. Grounded in the theory of realism, it will analyze how power competition, security concerns, and state interests shape international dynamics in the context of this conflict.

By combining diverse sources, the study will offer a deeper understanding of the geopolitical consequences of the war. The thesis seeks to contribute to academic debates on great power rivalry between Russia and US and on the future of regional and global order.

This thesis employs a qualitative research methodology based on the analysis of primary and secondary sources. The study draws on foundational scholarly works, peer-reviewed analytical articles from Foreign Affairs, official documents such as the UN Charter and national security strategies, expert interviews with prominent diplomats and researchers, and reputable news sources to contextualize ongoing developments. Theoretical framework. The global balance of power is a concept in political realism. According to political realism, states are aggressive by nature, and they are constantly seeking to defeat the enemy, to enter the war, and war is inevitable.

The war in Ukraine has reshaped Russia-US affairs sharply, enhancing a nuclear factor (Russian deployment of nuclear warheads in Belarus), sanctions, arms race, block diplomacy, shadow fleet and many others. The war is changing global power distribution due to the fact of involvement of actors (around 70+ countries which are supporting either of the sides), and multidimensionality (military, economy, diplomacy, migration). The war contributed to the global power shift, in favour of Russia, which is reasserting its geopolitical ambitions and taking Ukraine as an opportunity to weaken its rival – the West and reassert as a global power; while the US influence in the region and consequently globally is decreasing. Europe has named Russia as a major threat to European security

and is setting new measures and regulations in a military sector, that also contributes to European security and its strategic autonomy.

The aftermath of the war serves as a green light for other big powers to start the race for dominance. Moreover, the war has undermined the international standards and norms. The system, where democracy and international law were prevailing, was shattered.