Navigating Oil Dependence: Factors Shaping Energy Transition Pathways in Authoritarian Petrostates

Abstract

As global momentum toward decarbonization accelerates, oil-dependent authoritarian states face growing pressure to reconfigure their hydrocarbon-based economic and political systems. However, their energy transition pathways vary widely, even among countries with similar structural conditions. This thesis examines the factors shaping these different outcomes comparing five petrostates – Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Guided by Gregory Unruh’s carbon lock-in theory, the study conceptualizes energy transition resistance through three mutually reinforcing mechanisms: technical, institutional, and societal lock-in.

To investigate how these mechanisms work across cases, the research develops a five-factor analytical framework assessing: (1) legal and policy frameworks, (2) business climate, (3) private and civil society engagement, (4) state investment in renewables, and (5) economic dependence on fossil fuels. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), the thesis maps cross-national variation in transition progress and identifies configurations of conditions that indicate higher or lower levels of transition.

The findings demonstrate that no single factor is sufficient to explain outcomes. Instead, higher transition progress emerges from one specific configuration: strong legal frameworks, a supportive business climate, and high state investment in renewables. This state-led pathway is most clearly present in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan. In contrast, Russia and Azerbaijan show how the absence of several of these conditions reinforces deep technological and institutional lock-in, limiting progress.

The study contributes to energy transition research by applying carbon lock-in theory to a set of structurally similar autocratic petrostates, demonstrating how a differing combination of internal factors shapes transition trajectories. It also advances methodological practice by employing fsQCA to capture causal complexity in small-N comparisons. Ultimately, the thesis highlights that in petrostates, the path toward decarbonization does not depend on seperate reforms but on multiple, overlapping lock-ins. It shaped by political and institutional realities, and by technological capabilities as well.