Natural Trading Partners of Tajikistan Along the Silk Road

Abstract

One Belt One Road (OBOR), or known among scholars as Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a Chinese project for economic integration and revival of the ancient Silk Road. The Chinese president initiated this project in 2013. BRI connects China with the rest of the world. Tajikistan is also part of this project that connects China to Balkans and Eastern Europe. The response of the Tajik government regarding this project has been very positive. It is assumed that BRI will benefit Tajikistan economically. This paper will provide inference whether BRI will benefit Tajikistan or not, in terms of trade. In addition to that, paper will also provide analysis whether Tajikistan’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will result in increased trade. This is done using “natural trading partners” theory which states that integration of natural partners creates welfare. The paper identifies which countries on the BRI route and EAEU are “natural partners” for Tajikistan. The trade volume, proximity with partners and complementarity in terms of products is analyzed, all of which are important factors in theory of natural trading partners. Paper finds that Belarus, Russia, China, Turkey and Kazakhstan are natural trading partners of Tajikistan. Only from trade point of view, paper concludes that BRI and EAEU are trade creating for Tajikistan. However, other factors should not be dismissed.