The Security Implications of India-Pakistan Confrontation in Afghanistan, 2001-2019

Abstract

India and Pakistan have been competing to consolidate their geopolitical, economic and security interests in Afghanistan since the establishment of Pakistan in 1947. To achieve these goals, each state has been putting enormous efforts. Consequently, the intense competition between the two states has affected Afghanistan's security, political, and economic situation. Since the emergence of the Republic of Afghanistan, except for the Taliban regime (Taliban Emirate) in the 1990s, Afghanistan and India have had friendly relations based on mutual respect. Unlike India, Pakistan has been seeking an obedient government in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. Hence, Pakistan has always sought to weaken Afghanistan's political, military, and economic institutions, and it has consistently been accused of supporting the Afghan government's political opposition and insurgent groups. Additionally, Pakistan is accused of using terrorist groups such as Taliban, Haqqani, and Lashkar-e-Taiba as its proxies against the Afghan government. It has focused on demolishing India‟s strategic objectives in Afghanistan and the region. As a consequence of the insurgency and terrorist activities, thousands of civilians have been killed since 2001. Therefore, this thesis assesses some key factors 1) Pakistan‟s geopolitical interests in Afghanistan, 2) India‟s geopolitical objectives in Afghanistan, 3) the foreign policy approaches (soft power by India and asymmetric warfare (through Taliban and other insurgent groups) by Pakistan) 4) the struggle of Afghanistan in its anti-terror/asymmetric warfare, and 5) the human security dimension and impacts such as civilian casualties, the other effects on health, education, shelter, and economics. Moreover, variety of methods, qualitative research methods, such as desk research and case study, are used to assess these elements. Desk research enables the author to look at the already exited academic publications, state, and international organizations‟ official statements, civil society, and educational organizations to assess India and Pakistan's current conflict and its implications on Afghanistan‟s security. Since this thesis looks at figures of the civilian casualties who are either killed or injured in the ongoing war in Afghanistan, a quantitative research method helps out the author measure the number of deaths. Moreover, a qualitative method of research, a case study, is used to study the current fight in Kashmir as one of the reasons for the India-Pakistan conflict in Afghanistan. Furthermore, this thesis discusses the root causes of Pakistan-India regional rivalry, its history, and the consequences of such competition on Afghanistan's situation, particularly its security implications. Now that the international community, led by the United States, has increased its efforts to establish peace in Afghanistan through diplomatic talks with the Taliban, it is vital to underscore India and Pakistan's role in these talks‟ success.