Economic Impact of the Sardoba Dam Failure on Syrdarya Region: A Mixed Methods Assessment

Abstract

The Sardoba dam accident led to many economic and social consequences. In this paper, we questioned whether dam failure effected the prices and external trade in the region, if yes, how severe was the impact of the catastrophic event. Furthermore, this thesis tries to answer how well-being changed in the damaged area because of the dam accident. In order to evaluate this impact, the paper uses quasi-experimental approach to the questions and uses multiple group interrupted time series analysis, combining conversational interviews in Sardoba district. Navoiy region is selected as a counterfactual to Syrdarya region, as it has the second biggest dam in its territory and demonstrates highest correlation of the pre-intervention data with the Syrdarya. This paper considers using some qualitative tools such as interview and participant observations to explain the Sardoba dam accident effect on well-being of inhabitants. In order to be consistent to quantitative results and counterfactual principles the fieldwork was conducted in Navoiy region too