The Osh Events: Implications for Early Warning Theory and Methodology

Abstract

Looking at the Osh events of 2010 through the glasses of early warning theory and methodology this paper analyses what was done and what could have been done by organizations involved in early warning and prevention of conflicts in Kyrgyzstan by answering the question: “Did the organizations involved in early warning of conflicts predict the Osh events?” More specifically, this paper constitutes a performance evaluation of the organizations using such factors as timeliness, preciseness and frequency of early warning as well as credibility and public outreach as the framework for assessment. The research, undertaken for the purpose of this paper, identified that by and large the organizations rely on common sense but not early warning theoretical models. The research results suggest the following implications for early warning theory and methodology: lack of early warning models combining both qualitative and quantitative methods to predict imminent conflicts, problem of timeliness of early warning, lack of credible channels for immediate communication and dissemination of early warning signals. Partnership of the relevant state bodies, civil society and international organizations as well as early warning theorists to monitor conflict potential and predict future humanitarian disasters is recommended.