The Problems of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline Its impacts on Turkmen Trade Relations

Abstract

This thesis focuses on the problems of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project and its potential impact on Turkmenistan’s trade relations. It sheds light on key factors that have delayed its realization since the signing of the agreement on its construction in 1999 and illuminates the nature of today’s arguments against the project. The collision of interests in the Caspian basin, the investment climate in Turkmenistan, and environmental aspects are discussed within the context of the TCGP. Taking into account the recent track record of Russia in international conflict resolution the paper investigates the role of Kremlin in the TCGP project. Adhering to the theoretical framework of the conflict-trade relationship and, on a broader scale, of economic impacts of conflicts, it assesses possible impacts on Turkmen trade relations. The analysis of Turkmeninstan’s trade ties is based on WTO international trade statistics. By profiling Russia’s relative position in export and import portfolios of Turkmenistan it studies the range and the depth of negative impacts that could result from a conflict between the two countries. The findings are that mutual interdependence of Russian and Turkmen economies is not decisive; product flows are sufficiently flexible and can be redirected if conflicting states, albeit it is unlikely, impose trade restrictions and deter curtail international trade freedom.