Estimation of Possible Effect of Russian Ruble Devaluation on Migration Inflow from Kyrgyz Republic to Russian Federation

Abstract

The paper is focused on migration flow from Kyrgyz Republic to Russian Federation and attempts to outline the major determinants of the process, and estimate the possible direction and size of its change on the background of recent changes in Russian economy (2014-2015). Discussion in the working paper includes the review of various studies on the topic of determinants for migration behavior. Major focus of the study is to analyze the effect of Russian Ruble devaluation on migration via remittances and exchange rate of Ruble to Som. Working paper arrived to the results, providing empirical prove for statistically significant negative effect of Ruble depreciation against Som on remittance inflow. The paper leaves space for the further work on the topic expecting the more reliable measurements of the institutional changes in regulation of the migration process to provide more accurate estimation of the relative size of the effect.