Regionalism and Regime Survival in Central Asia: Why Tajikistan Has not Joined the Eurasian Economic Union Yet?

Abstract

The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), created in 2015 by Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, and later joined by Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, represents the most ambitious attempt at regional economic integration pursued by former Soviet republics since the collapse of the USSR itself. Disputes remain regarding its nature, whether it is a political project of Russia or a genuine attempt to build an economic organization with common objectives, as well as disputes remain within the union itself among its members who often accuse each other of trade wars and protectionism. One country of particular interest, however, has been understudied in the context of the EAEU. Tajikistan, ruled by an authoritarian regime of President Emomali Rahmon, was expected to become one of the members of the EAEU from its establishment, but has not done so yet. Why, despite so many predictions and the dependence of Tajikistan on Russia in both politico-military and economic terms, Tajikistan has not joined its key organization yet? To give a clearer picture of the situation around Tajikistan and the EAEU, the theoretical framework of the interplay between regionalism and regime security will be employed, revealing some nuances in the relations between the EAEU and Tajikistan.