DSpace Collection:

Trade Openness Impact on Economic Growth in Central Asia

2021-03-30T12:13:52Z

Title: Trade Openness Impact on Economic Growth in Central Asia Authors: Ishnazarov, Davron Abstract: Trade openness impact on economic growth is one of the most widely discussed and contradictory questions in economics. It is also an actual question today for CA countries as these countries are one after another joining WTO and/or other trade unions. While international organizations especially WTO promoting globalization and trade liberalization, empirical studies found mixed but predominantly positive, sometimes negative and no relationship between trade openness and growth. The study benefited from macroeconomic data for the period from 1992 to 2012 for five CA countries. Main obstacle to accept trade openness as a main engine of economic growth is also related with estimation issues of endogeneity of the variables and probability of existence of reverse causality between dependent and independent variables. To deal these issues system-GMM and Error correction models have been implemented. System-GMM estimation revealed that there is an economic and statistically very significant negative relationship between trade openness and economic growth, while, physical capital has statistically and quantitatively significant positive association. Interestingly, even natural resources exports comprise considerable part of total exports, no relationship was found between resource rent and GDP growth. Indicator of macroeconomic stability, inflation also found to have negative relationship with economic growth. Error correction model estimations revealed bidirectional causality between export and GDP in a short run. In a long-run; GDP granger causes export and GDP with export cause import. There is no causality running from trade toward GDP in a long run. Imports also does not granger cause neither GDP nor export in a short run. Even though our empirical estimations suggest more restrictive trade policies we proposed to become trade open but under certain conditions.

Impact of Migration and Remittances on Enrolment in Higher Education Institutions, Kyrgyzstan Case

2021-03-30T12:13:52Z

Title: Impact of Migration and Remittances on Enrolment in Higher Education Institutions, Kyrgyzstan Case Authors: Lim, Ekaterina Abstract: This paper focuses on finding the relationship between migration, international remittances and enrolment of children in higher education institutions, in Kyrgyzstan. In addition, the research studies the effects of other individual and household characteristics on the enrolment. Some of them include: age of the household head, real income per person, marital status of the respondents. First, it was expected that money transfers have strong positive effect on the enrolment. However, after running the regression it was found that it's not true for all the regions and not the same for boys and girls. The research uses four waves of Kyrgyz Household Integrated Survey data for the time period from 2005-2008. The survey has certain limitations, however is still good and comprehensive source of information about Kyrgyz households. Obtained results show that culture plays important role in Kyrgyz households' decisions on investment in higher education of their children.

Co2 Price Sensitivity of Relative LNG and Pipelines Cost-Efficiency

2021-03-30T12:13:52Z

Title: Co2 Price Sensitivity of Relative LNG and Pipelines Cost-Efficiency Authors: Dzhiganshina, Tatyana Abstract: The purpose of this research is to examine the effect of a change in CO2 prices on the relative cost-efficiency of a pipeline and LNG systems. Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas emitted through human activities. High concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere lead to climate change with its adverse consequences, such as sea level rise, more frequent and severe heat waves, increasing wildfire risks. As a result, many industrialized countries have passed legislation for emissions trading to combat climate change and reduce greenhouse emissions. Energy sector and energy-intensive industries are the main sources of greenhouse gases, and, therefore, they are sensitive to price changes on carbon dioxide emissions. Transportation of natural gas also requires a large amount of energy and, when choosing between constructing a pipeline or LNG system, it is important to take into account the trend of CO2 prices. In order to determine which natural gas transportation option is more cost-efficient, we derived cost estimation models for a pipeline and LNG systems, and found their break-even point at 1 678.69 miles, the transportation distance, at which both systems incur equal costs under the current CO2 price. An analysis of the pipeline and LNG cost behaviors showed that pipeline is more cost-efficient when the transportation distance is less than 1 678.69 miles, and if the distance is longer than the break-even point, LNG is the option. For the purpose to find how sensitive each natural gas transportation project to CO2 prices, we performed a sensitivity analysis by substituting the CO2 price parameter with the values from $0 to $100 with a step of $0.5. Based on the results, we concluded that LNG system is more sensitive to price changes on carbon dioxide emissions and, the higher the price is, the more cost-effective a pipeline system gets even for longer transportation distances. Thus, it can be assumed that LNG systems produce more carbon dioxide emissions than pipelines so the rise of CO2 prices makes them less economically feasible.

Competition in the Kyrgyz Banking Industry: Empirical Study Based on Panzar and Rosse Model

2021-03-30T12:13:52Z

Title: Competition in the Kyrgyz Banking Industry: Empirical Study Based on Panzar and Rosse Model Authors: Ilimbek uulu, Talgat Abstract: This study examines level of competition in the Kyrgyz banking industry over the period of 2010-2013. Calculation of concentration measures suggests that five banks in the Kyrgyz banking industry, control on average 55-60% of lending and deposit market. Concentration of lending and deposit market in the hands of few players raises concern about adequacy of competition in the banking industry. However, theory suggest that high concentration ratios does not necessarily imply that markets are not competitive. Therefore, we applied Panzar and Rosse model, which takes market structure as endogenous factor. Using the financial reports, we constructed unbalanced panel data with 86 observations and applied several econometric techniques. After testing our models for robustness, we decided that LSDV and within effect estimation are our preferred models. According to our estimations, the H-statistic is positive and significantly different from zero and unity. Therefore, we conclude that banking market of Kyrgyzstan is monopolistically competitive if average cost is U - shaped and possibly perfectly competitive if we have flat average cost. Even though, we could not identify the type of average cost which prevails in the banking market, the rejection of the null hypothesis that H<0 enables us to strongly reject possibility of monopoly and oligopoly for both types of cost. Therefore, concentration of market share in the hands of few banks does not imply significant market power in the banking market of Kyrgyz Republic.